5PM Advisory: Hurricane Ian

Hurricane warnings are now extended Southward.

Here's the current information:

LOCATION...24.0N 83.2W






A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo

* Tampa Bay

* Dry Tortugas

* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River

* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

* Suwannee River to the Anclote River

* All of the Florida Keys

* Flamingo to Altamaha Sound

* Flamingo to Chokoloskee

* Lake Okeechobee

* Florida Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West

* Florida Bay

* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River

* South of Marineland to the Volusia/Flagler county line

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 83.2 West. Ian is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduction in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday.

On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, pass west of the Florida Keys later tonight, and approach the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Re-strengthening is expected later today through Wednesday. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.

* Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte

Harbor...8-12 ft

* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...6-9 ft

* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa

Bay...4-6 ft

* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft

* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft

* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-6 ft

* Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft

* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Mouth of the St. Mary's River,

including St. Johns River...3-5 ft

* Altamaha Sound to Savannah River...3-5 ft

* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft

* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft

* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft

* Florida Keys...2-4 ft

* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft

* Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of Florida beginning early Wednesday, spreading up to Georgia and South Carolina on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba through tonight.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through Thursday night:

* Western Cuba: 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals up to 16

inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in

areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.

* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with isolated

totals up to 12 inches.

* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with isolated

totals up to 24 inches.

* Eastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with

isolated totals up to 12 inches.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through Wednesday across central and south Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean, and the Florida Keys, and will spread northward throughout the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

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