FLORIDA - A newly released forecast is warning of an unusually active hurricane season ahead for the Atlantic Basin, with researchers projecting significantly higher-than-average storm activity for 2025.
According to Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project, this year’s hurricane season could produce 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes—storms classified as Category 3 or higher with winds exceeding 111 mph.
The forecast, released on April 3rd, is based on key oceanic and atmospheric conditions that tend to drive hurricane formation and intensity.
One of the primary drivers of the prediction is the abnormally warm sea surface temperatures across the eastern Atlantic and Caribbean Sea.
Warm ocean waters provide critical fuel for tropical systems to form and intensify.
Additionally, a warmer Atlantic tends to reduce atmospheric pressure and create a more unstable environment, which further promotes storm development.
The forecast also accounts for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate pattern that influences hurricane behavior.
Currently, conditions are trending toward a weak La Niña, but scientists expect neutral ENSO conditions by the peak of the season, which could still support higher storm activity.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1st and runs through November 30th.
On average, the season produces 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.
Last year saw 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes.
Three storm names from 2024—Beryl, Helene, and Milton—were retired due to their destructive impacts.
NOAA will release its own seasonal outlook in May.
Meanwhile, residents are urged to begin preparations early.